Dec 20, 2004

Writer and photographer Thom Hogan has just published his predictions for 2005.
Considering how outrageous most folks thought his 2004 predictions were, let's see if he can be more outrageous (or maybe more accurate) this time around.

A couple of teasers:

Nikon Rounds Out the DSLR Line. The D100 gets dumped and replaced, and four new DSLRs get announced, three released in 2005. That makes the lineup D50 (new announcement), D70, D80 (new announcement and ship), D2h, D2h 2nd Edition, D2x, and the full-frame-but-not-available-in-2005 D3. So you want to know what the details for the new models are? Well, I've already described them all, actually.

Canon Does the Same. I don't expect Canon to let Nikon have a wider range of DSLRs than they do, so expect the Rebel to get bracketed. The Uber Rebel might get the 8mp chip and target the D70 at US$999. The Under Rebel is trying to make US$599. Which makes the Rebel Original target US$799 (a price it currently hits as I write this, assuming rebates). Likewise, there's a big gap between the 20D and 1D (19!), so I expect we'll see a variant of one or the other (e.g., a 30D that has more features and speed, or a 1D Jr that isn't quite as robust). Lenswise, Canon needs more wide angle and mid-range zoom options, especially EF-S lenses for the Rebel Family. Expect at least three new Canon lenses targeted at the digital users. The big question in my mind is whether the 1D will go Mark III in 2005. If I'm right about an 8mp D2h update, Canon will be antsy to go full-frame on the 1D; perhaps we'll get 11mp back, but at 8 fps this time

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